Factfulness: How Politics Makes You Dumber

In Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think, Hans Rosling insisted that humans—even the smartest ones—cannot process their surroundings any better than chimpanzees. There’s only one problem—he was right.

 

The Premise

The fragile human brain is highly susceptible to an overdramatic worldview. In particular, ten dramatic instincts that are hardwired into our neurons make it difficult for us to maintain a fact-based outlook.

As you will see, following the news—as in American political news—only makes things worse.

 

The Instincts

These ten flawed ways of thinking mean that you and I (also known as voters), when posed with questions about the world, will probably do worse than a group of chimpanzees guessing at random. (The text in italics is taken directly from Factfulness.)

The Gap Instinct

This instinct refers to that irresistible temptation we have to divide all kinds of things into two distinct and often conflicting groups, with an imagined gap—a huge chasm of injustice—in between. In other words, a binary view of the world is for the intellectually juvenile—um, Democrats and Republicans.

The Negativity Instinct

This instinct revolves around our tendency to notice the bad more than the good, leading us to believe things are getting worse. Your politician—or your politician’s media buddies—may want you to believe this, but their ulterior motives shouldn’t carry more weight than positive data.

The Straight Line Instinct

While data can certainly follow a straight line with a positive slope, the straight line instinct traps us into thinking that the line will continue with the same slope forever. Remember, graphs can have bends and even reverse course. Also, remember that if you zoom in far enough, everything looks like a straight line. If you have no idea what I’m talking about, take an eighth-grade math class instead of watching the news.

The Fear Instinct

This instinct makes sense—our ancestors needed fear to assist with survival. In modern times, there’s far less reason to fear the chubby dude who speaks a different language, regardless of what Fox News might tell you.

The Size Instinct

With regards to the negative or fear-inducing, the size instinct means that you tend to get things out of proportion. To avoid this pitfall, never trust an isolated number, no matter how “impressive” it might seem. Always compare data to prior data, and more importantly, always look at rates (per capita, etc.). The results might seem…boring. Sorry.

The Generalization Instinct

Categorization is critical for allowing us to function. It is also notorious for making us intellectually naïve. There are 335 million Americans, 1.4 billion Indians, 1.9 billion Muslims, and 2.4 billion Christians on Earth. Again, sorry to disappoint, but not everyone within these categories thinks the same way (are you listening, CNN?).

The Destiny Instinct

The destiny instinct is the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures. It’s the idea things are as they are for ineluctable, inescapable reasons: they have always been this way and will never change. Dangerous stuff—and exactly what your politician may want you to believe.

The Single Perspective Instinct

The preference for single causes and single solutions is the so-called single perspective instinct. Such simplicity is convenient, but it’s not particularly useful for understanding reality. Stated another way, that political ideology you’re married to is more useful for starting a cult than it is for solving complex problems.

The Blame Instinct

Much like the above, the blame instinct is the burning need to find a clear, simple reason for why something bad has happened. Identifying a single person or group as the sole cause of global inflation is childlike, i.e. perfect for the campaign trail.

The Urgency Instinct

The urgency instinct makes us want to take immediate action in the face of a perceived imminent danger. Unfortunately, running away from a lion is not quite the same as combating climate change or curbing illegal immigration. The latter two require data, logic, and time—not alarmism, otherwise known as your politician’s best friend.

 

The Take-Home Message of Factfulness

Please keep following the political news.

Just don’t think you’re smart because you do.